Housing sentiment
Housing sentiment is at record high. Source: NAB
  • Q2 survey climbed to high of +71 points
  • First home buyers remain most active participants in the market
  • NAB upgraded 2021 forecast for house price growth from 14.1% to 18.5%

NAB‘s Residential Property Index for Q2 of this year climbed to a survey high of +71 points, up from +69 points in the previous quarter.

Above average outcomes were recorded in all property markets, despite results being mixed across states and territories.

Housing market sentiment was strongest in the Northern Territory, followed by Western Australia, Queensland and Tasmania.

Residential Property Index, by state

NAB residential property index by state
Source: NAB.

First home buyers to be the most active participants in new housing markets, accounting for 47.8% of sales during the quarter – well above the survey average of 37.8%. These buyers were most active in South Australia, and least active in New South Wales.

Meanwhile, the total share of investors in the market increased for the second straight quarter to 18% (up from 16.8% in the previous quarter). Property professionals estimate these buyers were most active in New South Wales, Western Australia and Victoria.

The NAB report also explored the extent to which property professionals believe government incentives were helping first home buyers get into the market early.

To what extent do GOVERNMENT INCENTIVES
help first home buyers into the market earlier?

Source: NAB.

It was found that government incentives, such as the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and Commonwealth HomeBuilder Grants have played a significant role in helping first home buyers get into the market earlier, scoring 7.7/10.

To what extent do HOUSE PRICES
help first home buyers into the market earlier?

Source: NAB.

Meanwhile, property professionals said that rising house prices are having an even greater impact. Not surprisingly, the biggest impact was in NSW where the median house price is the highest in the nation.

Meanwhile, NAB has revised its house price forecast in 2021 based on faster than expected growth over recent months.

Overall, the bank expects dwelling prices to rise 18.5% in 2021 (up from the previous quarter’s estimate of 14.1%) and 3.6% in 2022 (down from the previous quarter’s estimate of 5.8%).

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