- Queensland’s demand hits record high amid land shortages; SA and WA slump sharply.
- National demand dips slightly but stays strong; NSW and Victoria hold steady.
- Buyers face tight competition in Queensland, but WA and SA offer negotiation leverage.
Qi Chen from OpenLot.com.au delves into the latest trends shaping Australia’s new house market. Drawing on exclusive buyer enquiry data, he reveals which states are surging ahead, where opportunities are emerging, and what these shifts mean for buyers navigating today’s dynamic landscape.
Australia’s new house market is showing strength, on the surface. But scratch beneath the surface and in some places you’ll find a very different story.
At OpenLot.com.au, we track buyer demand using our New House Enquiry Index. It’s based on a simple idea: the more enquiries the average buyer makes, the stronger the housing market. That gives us a sharp view of what buyers are actually doing, not just saying.
Queensland is leading the country by a wide margin. It’s the only state where demand grew in the first quarter of 2025. The Index there rose to 233.3 – an all-time high and 26% higher than in South Australia’s, which ranked second.
The main reason for Queensland’s clear breakaway is a shortage of developable land in the most desirable areas. Buyers are working harder to find the right blocks, driving the surge in enquiries. We expect land supply to improve in the second half of the year, but for now, Queensland remains red-hot.
At the national level, demand dipped slightly, down 1.3% compared to the same time last year. But historically, that is still strong. This is the third-highest level we’ve ever recorded nationally. People are still looking; they’re just not rushing.
Western Australia and South Australia are on a different trajectory. WA saw a steep 20.8% drop in buyer interest, while SA recorded a 12.4% fall. Both were previously strong markets but have clearly cooled. Whether that’s a blip or the start of a longer trend remains to be seen.
“Queensland’s new home demand just hit a record high, 26% above second-place South Australia. With land shortages driving competition, buyers need to act fast. Meanwhile, WA and SA markets cool, creating opportunities for savvy negotiators.”
Qi Chen, OpenLot
New South Wales and Victoria are holding steady for now. NSW demand slipped just 0.4% and remains near its all-time high. Victoria’s dip was more noticeable at 5.4%, but still within the range of a normal cycle. Neither state is in trouble, but both are worth watching closely over the next two quarters.
How This Impacts Your Buying Strategy
If you’re looking in Queensland, be prepared for competition. The market is tight, listings move fast, and you’ll need decisiveness and flexibility to gain an edge.
Buyers in WA and SA have more breathing room. You’re likely to find sellers who are open to negotiation, and fewer buyers are chasing each listing. Take your time to compare options – this could be a prime opportunity to secure value.
In NSW and Victoria, the window might be opening. Demand hasn’t dropped off yet, but if it does, opportunities could emerge. Stay close to the market, but don’t hesitate in hopes of a bigger bargain if you find what you want for a reasonable price.
Our index is built on the activity of more than 130,000 buyers a month and over 200,000 alert subscribers. It’s a real-time read on market behaviour – use it to your advantage.
