- Transaction numbers provide better insights into future market trends than changes in median house prices.
- Brisbane, Adelaide, and regional areas are showing strong signs of growth.
- Hobart, Melbourne, and parts of Tasmania continue to struggle.
In his latest contribution to The Property Tribune, Hotspotting general manager, Tim Graham discusses the anticipated property price growth in Australia’s smaller capital cities and regional towns.
Australia’s smaller capital cities and regional towns are forecast to be the property price growth winners for the remainder of 2024.
Analysis by Hotspotting of transaction numbers throughout Australia for the Spring 2024 Price Predictor Index (PPI), has revealed the markets primed for future growth.
Hotspotting General Manager, Tim Graham, said transaction numbers were a good indicator of how a property market was tracking.
“Changes in sales volumes are far more useful than changes in median house price to determine where prices are poised to rise,”
“History shows there is a correlation between sales volumes and price movements: the number of sales changes first and prices react – with a time lag.”
Tim Graham, Hotspotting
Mr Graham said changes in median house prices were more reflective of what had previously happened in the market, not of what was to come.
The transaction number analysis found buyers searched for affordable markets and as a result unit transactions had increased during the June quarter.
The winners
Brisbane
While earlier in 2024 transaction numbers were down as a result of a shortage of properties for sale, listings have increased since then and there has been a notable uplift in sales volumes in the June Quarter. Units were selling well and now account for more than half of sales in the Brisbane City LGA. The report found 44% of house markets had rising sales numbers and 53% of unit markets.
Regional Queensland
Of the Queensland markets outside Brisbane, 64% recorded positive sales patterns. That was a common pattern across most Regional Queensland cities and municipalities including the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Toowoomba, Rockhampton, Mackay, Gladstone, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Townsville and Cairns – all of which have busy (or, in some cases, frenzied) property markets.
Adelaide
Adelaide continues to feature as one of the nation’s growth leaders and sales in the June 2024 quarter were the highest levels in Greater Adelaide since mid-2022. This represented a 25% increase on the March Quarter and was 10% higher than the same time in 2023. The Greater Adelaide area had standout markets across all price ranges, including affordable municipalities of Playford and Salisbury, middle market areas Marion and West Torrens, and the upmarket Unley and Holdfast LGAs.
Regional South Australia
This is the out-performer that often flies under the radar. Sales levels in Regional SA were the highest since the 2021 peak. Sales volumes in the June 2024 Quarter were 23% better than the March Quarter and 25% up on the same time last year. The real stars in 2024 were the Iron Triangle towns of Whyalla, Port Pirie and Port Augusta.
Perth
The Perth boom remains strong, amid widespread fears (which we share and continue to warn about) that this market is overheated and that buyers are not doing appropriate due diligence. Nevertheless, sales volumes were still elevated and many of the Perth LGAs had high sales volumes, notably inner-city markets where affordable units dominated the real estate landscape.
The Losers
Hobart
Hobart is the weakest performer on house price growth. There is a “glimmer of recovery” but it remains well short of the bustling environment evident elsewhere in Australia. Sales volumes in the Greater Hobart area improved in the June Quarter, compared to three months earlier, but remain at similar levels as the same time last year – and still well below the peaks in 2020 and 2021, when Hobart was a national leader on sales activity and price growth.
Regional Tasmania
There are some signs of recovery, but Regional Tasmania continues to lag the performance seen elsewhere in Australia. Around half of locations across Regional Tasmania have positive rankings in terms of transaction numbers which represents a solid position but well short of a strong one.
Melbourne
Melbourne’s anaemic market has prevailed over the past two years and persists. There remains a high level of uncertainty in Greater Melbourne markets, despite improvement in sales volumes overall in the latest quarter. There are some positive sectors, notably outer-ring houses and near-city units, but overall Melbourne is an under-achiever, not helped by the Victoria State Government’s hostility to investors.
Darwin
Darwin continued to build on the signs of revival detected earlier this year with increased buyer demand in the outer-ring precincts of the Darwin region. But buyer demand still remains well below the last market peak in 2021-2022.
