- NAB data shows a “general slowing” trend in consumption levels across the country
- Growth is strongest results the arts and recreation, education, retail and transport
- Hospitality remains flat, along with travel agents, administration and support services
The latest NAB Economics Data Insights shows a “general slowing” trend in consumption levels across most of the states, although overall growth for the past year was still positive, at +1.8%.
Some softening in the figures were as a result of the sudden lockdowns in Victoria and Western Australia, although both states are expected to snap back quickly.
Home-related sectors were the strongest, while hospitality remains weak, particularly accommodation.
Consumption Spending by Industry
A high-level view of the latest consumer spending trends over the week to 20 February 2021 are presented below:
- Construction slowed (+7.1%) but remained positive
- Hospitality was flat
- Growth accelerated for arts and recreation (+13.8% weekly year on year), driven by a pick-up in gambling (+59.0%)
- Administration and support services is clearly still struggling, off 74.7%
- Travel agents are down -80.9%
- Education (+2.8%) returned to growth
- Health and social services (+3.3%) slowed
- Childcare, pathology/diagnostics, and social assistance contracted
- Rental, hiring and real estate (-5.2%) contracted, with car hire (-28.4%) and goods hire (-5.8%) both down sharply
- Real estate services (-2.7%) and property operators (+14.1%) improved, albeit with the former still contracting
- Accommodation and food services contracted
- Retail trade saw the strongest growth at 21.3%, followed by Transport, Postal & Warehousing at 15.8%.
“JobKeeper is now only having a small impact on business inflows overall, although remains important for some industries,” said NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster.
“Without JobKeeper, growth was in the order of 11.7% last week, although accommodation and food services is [sic] much more dependent on the program, with growth ex-JobKeeper last week of -6.5% rather -3.5%.”