- Greater Adelaide land prices increased 2.0% in the three months to the end of June.
- The price for a conventional lot in Melbourne's metro area increased 0.3% leading to the end of September.
- Logan is the most popular destination for new home buyers in South East Queensland.
Although the medium to long term outlook for Australia’s property market is overall robust, conditions vary across the nation, according to Oliver Hume‘s September Quarter 2023 report.
While construction challenges remain a factor, costs have recently eased.
Report author Julian Coppini says land prices continue to increase in some markets – boosted, in part, by large and growing housing shortages.
“However, in those markets where demand remains below long run average levels, we are now beginning to see gross land prices stabilise,” he said.
“This is occurring at the same time that incentives and rebates are being increasingly used.”
Coppini added that dwelling demand is forecast to remain high, due to record population growth and immigration, while new housing supply is forecast to remain constrained and below underlying requirements resulting in growing housing shortages.
Adelaide land prices edge higher
In the three months to the end of June, Greater Adelaide land prices increased by 2.0%, reaching $250,000.
Coppini said the Adelaide land market was performing well, despite the higher interest rates and building costs.
“South Australian land buyers have proven remarkably resilient, and we attribute that to their confidence in the local property market and economy, robust population growth and the fact that prices remain relatively affordable compared to other markets around Australia,” he said.
South Australia Median Prices – Q2 (June) 2023
| % | $ | ||||||
| Municipality | QII. ‘22 | Q1. ‘23 | QII.’23 | QoQ | YoY | QoQ | YoY |
| Adelaide Plains | $365,000 | $247,000 | $390,000 | 57.9% | 6.8% | $143,000 | $25,000 |
| Alexandrina | $199,000 | $219,750 | $234,500 | 6.7% | 17.8% | $14,750 | $35,500 |
| Gawler | $190,000 | $212,000 | $209,000 | -1.4% | 10.0% | -$3,000 | $19,000 |
| Light | $179,000 | $210,000 | $215,000 | 2.4% | 20.1% | $5,000 | $36,000 |
| Mt Barker | $249,725 | $250,000 | $273,950 | 9.6% | 9.7% | $23.950 | $24,225 |
| Murray Bridge | $133,500 | $126,000 | $192,500 | 52.8% | 44.2% | $66,500 | $59,000 |
| Onkaparinga | $265,000 | $315,000 | $285,000 | -9.5% | 7.5% | -$30,000 | $20,000 |
| Playford | $198,000 | $240,000 | $242,000 | 0.8% | 22.2% | $2,000 | $44,000 |
| Victor Harbor | $201,500 | $217,000 | $245,000 | 12.9% | 21.6% | $28,000 | $43,500 |
| Greater Adelaid and Surrounds (Conventional) | $206,000 | $245,000 | $250,000 | 2.0% | 21.4% | $5,00 | $44,000 |
| Greater Adelaide and Surrounds (All) | $199,950 | $246,100 | $245,000 | -0.4% | 22.5% | -$1,100 | $45,050 |
Source: Oliver Hume
Melbourne land prices hold steady
The price for a lot in Melbourne’s metropolitan area increased by just 0.3% – $1,000 – to $393,000 in the three months leading to the end of September.
This takes the full year growth to $11,000, according to the report.
However, this price growth was likely offset by the widespread use of developer rebates and incentives, thereby lowering the net price paid by buyers compared to the previous quarter.
Melbourne median prices Q3 (September) 2023
| % | $ | ||||||
| Municipality | QIII.’22 | QII.’23 | QIII.’23 | QoQ | YoY | QoQ | YoY |
| Cardinia | $380,000 | $397,000 | $415,000 | 4.5% | 9.2% | $18,000 | $35,000 |
| Casey | $475,000 | $459,000 | $445,000 | -3.1% | -6.3% | ($14,000) | ($30,000) |
| Greater Geelong | $379,000 | $406,900 | $407,000 | 0.0% | 7.4% | $100 | $28,000 |
| Hume | $377,900 | $385,900 | $389,000 | 0.8% | 2.9% | $3,100 | $11,100 |
| Melton | $390,500 | $396,000 | $407,500 | 2.9% | 4.4% | $11,500 | $17,000 |
| Mitchell | $341,000 | $361,000 | $345,000 | -4.4% | 1.2% | ($16,000) | $4,000 |
| Whittlesea | $395,750 | $377,000 | $365,500 | -3.1% | -7.6% | ($11,500) | ($30,250) |
| Wyndham | $376,000 | $384,800 | $382,950 | -0.5% | 1.8% | ($1,850) | $6,950 |
| Metro Melbourne (Conventional) | $382,000 | $392,000 | $393,000 | 0.3% | 2.9% | $1,000 | $11,000 |
| Metro Melbourne (All Lots) | $383,900 | $396,000 | $396,000 | 0.0% | 3.2% | $0 | $12,100 |
| Median (All of Victoria) | $373,500 | $390,000 | $395,000 | 1.3% | 5.8% | $5,000 | $21,500 |
Source: Oliver Hume
Coppini said volumes had begun to improve but remain very low compared to historical averages, with buyers still taking a cautious approach to interest rates and the economic outlook.
“Strong population growth, housing shortages and pent-up demand are helping to underpin demand, but it will take a while until we can declare a recovery,” he said.
“The ongoing rebound in the established property market and property price increases is also driving a little bit of a rebound in sale volumes and hopefully, this can be maintained.”
Park Ridge is a strong performer in South East Queensland
Oliver Hume’s research shows that Logan has retained its title as the most popular destination for new home buyers, with a market share of 37.4% in the three months leading up to September.
Prices rises have eased also, with median land prices across Logan rising a mere 0.62% in the September quarter.
Median prices for SEQ – Q3 2023
| % | $ | ||||||
| Municipality | QIII.’22 | QII.’23 | QIII.’22 | QoQ | YoY | QoQ | YoY |
| Brisbane | $568,000 | $584,500 | $730,000 | -2.82% | -22.19% | -$16,500 | -$162,000 |
| Gold Coast | $690,000 | $637,000 | $949,900 | 8.32% | -27.36% | $53,000 | -$259,900 |
| Ipswich | $313,000 | $325,000 | $298,000 | -3.69% | 5.03% | -$12,000 | $15,000 |
| Logan | $316,000 | $314,050 | $279,000 | 0.62% | 13.26% | $1,950 | $37,000 |
| Moreton Bay | $379,000 | $378,500 | $384,700 | 0.13% | -1.48% | $500 | -$5,700 |
| Redlands | $459,000 | $547,500 | $496,000 | -16.16% | -7.46% | -$88,500 | -$37,000 |
| South East Queensland | $342,250 | $346,000 | $310,000 | -1.08% | 10.40% | -$3,750 | $32,250 |
Source: Oliver Hume
Oliver Hume Queensland general manager, Dan Ross, said price increases across most jurisdictions in South East Queensland are starting to ease, with the missing piece of the puzzle being more stock coming to market and increased competition.
“This is great news for buyers and will help ease some of the affordability issues that have impacted the market over recent times.
“We would expect prices to continue to remain resilient in the lead up to Christmas and into 2024 but we still need more stock to help maintain the balance between supply and demand.”
