- Significant cooling since 2022, with September report expecting up to 20% price growth
- Expected price growth is subdued, below double digits
- March report still saw potential growth peaking over 10%
The latest Shore Financial State of Sydney report has been released, with the top picks for price growth across Sydney a significantly subdued affair.
In September 2022, the report tipped several Sydney suburbs would still see growth figures of up to 20%, with many in the double digits. The then report included popular locales such as Liverpool, Erksineville, Marrickville, Dulwich Hill, and Paddington.
Later in December, price expectations took a hit, with the report forecasting Sydney house price growth in its top five lists to sit at a measly single digit rate.
As the market began to look up in March, some of Heartland Sydney’s suburbs began to see the light at the end of the tunnel, with house price predictions slightly over 10%.
Housing market recovery in full swing
The latest data from PropTrack and CoreLogic could be pointing toward a housing market recovery that is well underway, with yet another rise for the nation on house price indexes.
While not all cities saw a rosy outcome, PropTrack’s index recorded a 0.58% month on month rise in house prices for Sydney, but is about 2% down from a year ago. The CoreLogic index had Sydney at a month on month rise of 1.8%, quarterly rise of 4.5%, but an annual fall of 8.2%.
While supply is beginning to ease, according to PropTrack, new listings remained soft. Demand has also skyrocketed with the forecast number of people to call Australia home revised significantly over the past few months.
Sydney’s Top 5 suburbs for price growth
According to SQM Research’s weekly asking prices index, the rolling month change for house prices is up 0.2%, with three bedroom houses losing 3%. The quarterly change is up 4% for all houses, and 12 month change is up 1.4%.
Units likewise saw rises across the board, with the combined results seeing a quarterly rise fo 3.6% and yearly rise of 2.1%.
Top 5 suburbs for Heartland Sydney
| Rank | Suburb | Postcode | Current median house price | Forecast house price growth for next 6 months | |||
| 1 | Dean Park | 2761 | $820,000 | 3% | |||
| 2 | Emu Heights | 2750 | $930,000 | 3% | |||
| 3 | Currans Hill | 2567 | $870,000 | 1% | |||
| 4 | Cambridge Gardens | 2747 | $810,000 | 1% | |||
| 5 | Hobartville | 2753 | $812,000 | 1% | |||
Source: Shore Financial’s State of Sydney Report, June 2023.
Top 5 suburbs for Suburban Sydney
| Rank | Suburb | Postcode | Current median house price | Forecast house price growth for next 6 months | |||
| 1 | The Oaks | 2570 | $1,225,000 | 5% | |||
| 2 | Blair Athol | 2560 | $945,000 | 4% | |||
| 3 | Mount Riverview | 2774 | $950,000 | 2% | |||
| 4 | Elderslie | 2570 | $1,008,000 | 1% | |||
| 5 | Casula | 2170 | $1,025,000 | 1% | |||
Source: Shore Financial’s State of Sydney Report, June 2023.
Top 5 suburbs for Rising Sydney
| Rank | Suburb | Postcode | Current median house price | Forecast house price growth for next 6 months | |||
| 1 | Alfords Point | 2234 | $1,600,000 | 2% | |||
| 2 | Cecil Hills | 2171 | $1,350,000 | 1% | |||
| 3y | Harrington Park | 2567 | $1,360,000 | 1% | |||
| 4 | Dundas | 2117 | $1,628,000 | 1% | |||
| 5 | Enmore | 2042 | $1,740,000 | 1% | |||
Source: Shore Financial’s State of Sydney Report, June 2023.
Top 5 suburbs for Professional Sydney
| Rank | Suburb | Postcode | Current median house price | Forecast house price growth for next 6 months | |||
| 1 | Balmain | 2041 | $2,350,000 | 4% | |||
| 2 | North Epping | 2121 | $2,300,000 | 3% | |||
| 3 | Davidson | 2085 | $2,182,500 | 3% | |||
| 4 | Terrey Hills | 2084 | $1,885,000 | 3% | |||
| 5 | Cherrybrook | 2126 | $2,150,000 | 2% | |||
Source: Shore Financial’s State of Sydney Report, June 2023.
Top 5 suburbs for Affluent Sydney
| Rank | Suburb | Postcode | Current median house price | Forecast house price growth for next 6 months | |||
| 1 | Kogarah Bay | 2217 | $2,720,000 | 3% | |||
| 2 | North Bondi | 2026 | $3,900,000 | 3% | |||
| 3 | Paddington | 2021 | $2,800,000 | 3% | |||
| 4 | Concord West | 2138 | $2,718,000 | 1% | |||
| 5 | Gladesville | 2111 | $2,570,000 | 1% | |||
Source: Shore Financial’s State of Sydney Report, June 2023.
Among the latest top picks, Sydney cultural melting pots such as Enmore, and coastal destinations such as North Bondi made the list. In a beautiful pocket south of the CBD, the top Affluent Sydney pick was Kogarah.
Shore Financial CEO Theo Chambers said the latest Shore Financial State of Sydney Report is very timely, considering there’s so much uncertainty about what will happen to the Sydney property market over the rest of the year.
“Prices are rising again in many suburbs, after falling for most of 2022 and the start of 2023. However, it’s too early to tell whether this is a dead-cat bounce or the start of another growth cycle,” he said.
“You could make the argument that this price growth is a false positive because the low level of housing supply is propping up prices. If and when more stock comes onto the market this will have an impact on prices but we don’t know exactly how much.
“Conversely, you could argue that this demand is very real – due to a surge in migration and people coming to terms with rate rises – and that therefore the Sydney market has turned a corner. In that case, prices might continue rising in the city as a whole.
“Focusing on the 25 suburbs in the Shore Financial State of Sydney Report, what stands out is how they’re placed in terms of supply.
“Inventory levels are low in all these suburbs, which means buyers are being forced to compete hard to secure a property, putting upward pressure on prices.
“Furthermore, leading indicators suggest these suburbs have a very low likelihood of a surge in listings in the foreseeable future. They have strong market conditions that are likely to keep upward pressure on prices in the next six months.”
Methodology
Shore Financial’s report separates Sydney’s over 600 suburbs into five different categories or quintiles, based on the median asking price for houses. The report then takes the top five suburbs in each quintile and is displayed above.
The report excludes suburbs that don’t meet some criteria relating to asking prices, days on market, inventory levels, and sales volumes over the past three months.
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Disclaimer: This article contains general information and should at no time be considered advice to the reader. The reader should always verify their situation with the relevant certified professionals before taking any further steps.
