- Premium suburbs are leading the pack.
- Affordable locations are forecast for subdued growth.
- Sydney is believed to be a rising market.
Sydney property prices led the latest national value rises, with premium locations doing the heavy lifting. According to PropTrack data, the nation’s top 10 suburbs for median price growth across the past six months included four suburbs in the million-dollar club, all of which were in Sydney.
The Sydney price growth was mainly attributed to changing consumer confidence and reduced recessionary worries.
“I think Sydney has benefited, in particular, from a real change in sentiment in the market this year, compared with last year,” REA Group senior economist, Paul Ryan, previously told The Property Tribune.
“This time last year, I think people were worried about recessions, they were worried about the risks to the global economy, and now we are in a position where we are either at the peak of rates or very close to the peak of rates.”
UPDATE: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) has kept interest rates on hold for the third consecutive month in September. The pause on rates is expected to continue instilling confidence in the property market, but the dual headwinds of high interest rates and affordability challenges remain.
UPDATE: Residential real estate in Australia has hit the $10 trillion mark again, previously reaching the feat in June 2022. Drivers of Australian property prices include a rising median price and more homes.
UPDATE: Sydney was recently ranked first in the world for luxury market growth, further cementing the strength of the premium market. The Knight Frank report found that the total combined sales value of the luxury homes sold across the second quarter was over US$680 million.
Sydney home prices are going strong, but for how long?
Recently, PropTrack forecast 3% to 6% price growth for Sydney dwelling prices towards the end of this year. While less confident due to the multiple factors impacting the market, next year’s forecast was between a -1% to 2% price change.
Westpac also recently released a forecast for dwelling values, with Sydney real estate prices expected to grow by 10% in 2023, 6% in 2024, and 4% in 2025.
PropTrack director of economic research, Cameron Kusher, previously noted key drivers of property price growth were limited supply and strong demand.
There may be light at the end of the tunnel though, with the typically busier spring season approaching, and an unseasonable uplift in Sydney property listings recently reported.
Top five Sydney suburbs forecast for growth
Shore Financial has revealed its latest property price predictions for Sydney, unveiling the top five suburbs for price growth across five different quintiles of the Sydney housing market.
These quintiles divided Sydney’s circa 600 suburbs into five categories, based on their current median asking prices for houses. The quintiles are referred to as Heartland Sydney, Suburban Sydney, Rising Sydney, Professional Sydney, and Affluent Sydney.
The rankings are done by first excluding suburbs that do not meet certain benchmarks and trends related to asking prices, days on market, inventory levels, and sales volumes over the past three months. The remaining suburbs are then ranked on expected growth in asking prices over the next six months.
Top five Heartland Sydney suburbs for house price growth
| Rank | Suburb | Postcode | Current median house price | Forecast house price growth for the next 6 months | ||
| 1 | Blacktown | 2148 | $880,000 | 2% | ||
| 2 | Kings Park | 2148 | $955,000 | 1% | ||
| 3 | Villawood | 2163 | $885,000 | 1% | ||
| 4 | Busby | 2168 | $780,000 | 1% | ||
| 5 | Green Valley | 2168 | $902,000 | 1% | ||
Source: Shore Financial.
Top five Suburban Sydney suburbs for house price growth
| Rank | Suburb | Postcode | Current median house price | Forecast house price growth for the next 6 months | ||
| 1 | Berala | 2141 | $1,205,000 | 6% | ||
| 2 | Horningsea Park | 2171 | $1,035,000 | 5% | ||
| 3 | Georges Hall | 2198 | $1,201,000 | 4% | ||
| 4 | South Granville | 2142 | $925,000 | 3% | ||
| 5 | Seven Hills | 2147 | $940,000 | 3% | ||
Source: Shore Financial.
Top five Rising Sydney suburbs for house price growth
| Rank | Suburb | Postcode | Current median house price | Forecast house price growth for the next 6 months | ||
| 1 | Belmore | 2192 | $1,500,000 | 6% | ||
| 2 | Dundas Valley | 2117 | $1,690,000 | 6% | ||
| 3 | Dundas | 2117 | $1,700,000 | 5% | ||
| 4 | Kellyville | 2155 | $1,740,000 | 4% | ||
| 5 | East Hills | 2213 | $1,300,000 | 2% | ||
Source: Shore Financial.
Top five Professional Sydney suburbs for house price growth
| Rank | Suburb | Postcode | Current median house price | Forecast house price growth for the next 6 months | ||
| 1 | Beecroft | 2119 | $2,400,000 | 7% | ||
| 2 | Camperdown | 2050 | $1,810,000 | 6% | ||
| 3 | Ashbury | 2193 | $1,830,000 | 5% | ||
| 4 | Cherrybrook | 2126 | $2,235,000 | 5% | ||
| 5 | Castle Hill | 2154 | $2,100,000 | 4% | ||
Source: Shore Financial.
Top five Affluent Sydney suburbs for house price growth
| Rank | Suburb | Postcode | Current median house price | Forecast house price growth for the next 6 months | ||
| 1 | Naremburn | 2065 | $2,950,000 | 9% | ||
| 2 | Fairlight | 2094 | $3,780,000 | 6% | ||
| 3 | Turramurra | 2074 | $2,750,000 | 5% | ||
| 4 | Chatswood | 2067 | $2,915,000 | 5% | ||
| 5 | St Ives | 2075 | $2,995,000 | 3% | ||
Source: Shore Financial.
Based on the research, Sydney’s housing market has turned the corner, according to Shore Financial CEO, Theo Chambers. ‘
“Twelve months ago, prices were falling in most suburbs across Sydney. Six months ago, the turnaround had just begun, but it was too early to know for sure. Now, though, we can say with certainty that Sydney is in growth mode,” he said.
“During the past six months, we’ve seen days on market and inventory levels fall in many parts of Sydney. In other words, market conditions have swung from buyers to sellers, which has been reflected in rising asking prices.
Chambers stressed that there is a distinction between a rising market, which he noted Sydney is experiencing, and a booming market, which Sydney is definitely not seeing.
“It’s also important to realise that while prices are rising across Sydney as a whole, they’re not rising in every single suburb. Also, the outlook differs from suburb to suburb. Our research shows that wealthier suburbs, like Naremburn on the North Shore and Fairlight on the Northern Beaches, are likely to record stronger growth over the next half-year than less affluent suburbs like Busby and Green Valley in the city’s west.
“Focusing just on the 25 suburbs in the Shore Financial State of Sydney Report, they’re all showing strong signs they’ll outperform suburbs in a similar price bracket over the next half-year. One of the key leading indicators is the low levels of inventory in these suburbs. Demand pressures are building, which is likely to lead to above-average price growth.”
Naremburn forecast for 9% growth
Located on Sydney’s lower North Shore, the suburb is well connected, well located, and benefits from an abundance of amenities. Naremburn borders St Leonards, is close to the St Leonards station, and is serviced by the M1 motorway. It also enjoys close proximity to the Royal North Shore Hospital and the Crows Nest retail precinct.
Naremburn suburb profile
|
Average household weekly income |
$3,272 |
| Median house price – now |
$2,950,000 |
|
Median house price – growth over past 12 months |
2.6% |
| Median house price – forecast growth over next 6 months |
9% |
|
Inventory levels |
Under 1 month |
| Days on market |
8 days |
|
Share of homes occupied by owner-occupiers |
64.3% |
| Share of homes that are freestanding houses |
37.8% |
Source: Shore Financial.
Asking property prices for 2065, including Naremburn
Fairlight predicted to grow by 6%
Bordering Manly, the suburb of Fairlight enjoys all the benefits of Manly and nearby Balgowlah. It comes as little surprise the suburb is doing well. Real estate expert and contributor, Lloyd Edge, previously wrote in The Property Tribune that ‘bridesmaid suburbs‘ or ‘sister suburbs‘ tended to have better capital growth potential as they grow in popularity when buyers are priced out of the premium suburb and start buying next door.
The total property listings for the postcode of 2094, including Fairlight is incredibly tight, with SQM Research data showing only 14 properties listed for sale.
Stock on market for sale in 2094, including Fairlight
Fairlight suburb profile
|
Average household weekly income |
$3,251 |
| Median house price – now |
$3,780,000 |
|
Median house price – growth over past 12 months |
10.7% |
| Median house price – forecast growth over next 6 months |
6% |
|
Inventory levels |
1.1 months |
| Days on market |
22 days |
|
Share of homes occupied by owner-occupiers |
64.9% |
| Share of homes that are freestanding houses |
26.5% |
Source: Shore Financial.
Chatswood expected to grow by 5%
The bustling hub of Chatswood has seen its landscape change considerably over the past few years and continues to change.
Developments in the suburb include Central Element‘s and MaxCap Group’s Ethos. Recent changes in stamp duty legislation are also believed to be behind a flurry of sales in Sydney’s North Shore, Plus Agency‘s Peter Li recently told The Property Tribune.
Chatswood suburb profile
|
Average household weekly income |
$2,158 |
| Median house price – now |
$2,915,000 |
|
Median house price – growth over past 12 months |
2.3% |
| Median house price – forecast growth over next 6 months |
5% |
|
Inventory levels |
1.7 months |
| Days on market |
17 days |
|
Share of homes occupied by owner-occupiers |
49.8% |
| Share of homes that are freestanding houses |
28.0% |
Source: Shore Financial.
Asking property prices for 2067, including Chatswood
