Australian house price forecast Top 10 locations for growth in spring 2023
The growth leaders of the Australian real estate market include big cities like Sydney and Melbourne. Image: Canva.
  • Sydney is back on top and is the National Growth Star.
  • Stirling remains one of the nation's standout locations.
  • Big city recoveries are a major theme, with Melbourne also featuring.

The Australian real estate market has seen big cities turn the tables on the past year’s malaise with an incredible recovery. The recovery theme was also carried through much of the property market.

The winter was unseasonably busy, with auction activity lifting throughout the colder months, culminating in the strongest run of clearance rates in two years, according to Domain’s auction report. As spring rolled around, auction activity picked up further, with September set to close out with the busiest auction weekend for the year, according to CoreLogic.

New property listings were also rising across the nation, with August recording a month-on-month uplift of 9.4%, according to Ray White.

Similarly, PropTrack data found an August rise in new listings, up 20.5% month-on-month. Pleasingly, the total listings were 5.7% up month-on-month and 0.5% up year-on-year.

Year-on-year Australian house price growth was also recorded, with Ray White data showing home prices across the nation were up by 5%.

Price growth of capital city houses

Capital city price growth
Source: Neoval, Ray White.

Australian property price growth was notable. How notable? Australia’s residential housing market reprised its $10 trillion value in the June 2023 quarter according to both the ABS and CoreLogic.

The value of homes in Australia

Value of dwelling stock in Australia June quarter 2023.
Source: ABS.

The recovery trend was observed by Hotspotting director, Terry Ryder, who said of the Hotspotting Price Predictor Index (PPI):

“The previous edition recorded the first signs of recovery, but this spring survey shows a dramatic upturn in the revival momentum in most market jurisdictions in Australia,” he said.

“Without question, recovery and resurgence are the dominant themes with seven out of 10 locations in the nation now having positive sales activity trends – a massive improvement on the situation three months ago, when we saw the first signs of revival.”

Hotspotting general manager, Tim Graham, added that the trend gained ground as time went on.

“The recovery signs we noted six months ago, and more strongly three months ago, have strengthened further – and now Sydney is Australia’s strongest market,” he said.

“Some 80% of suburbs have positive sales trends, which is the best percentage in the nation. The revival is widespread across all sectors, with units notably to the fore.”

Top 10 Australian locations for growth

The spring edition of Hotspotting’s Price Predictor Index has ranked the ten best municipalities across Australia that have notable numbers of growth suburbs and includes a mix of seven capital cities and three regional areas. Four locations were in New South Wales, and three were in Queensland.

The below is in alphabetical order.

  1. Blacktown, NSW,
  2. Brisbane North, Queensland,
  3. Casey, Victoria,
  4. Gladstone, Queensland,
  5. Gold Coast, Queensland,
  6. Melbourne City, Victoria,
  7. Stirling, Western Australia,
  8. Sydney City, NSW,
  9. Tea Tree Gully, South Australia, and
  10. Wollongong and Shoalhaven, NSW.

Blacktown, New South Wales

Located in Sydney’s West, the City of Blacktown put in a strong performance, with 21 out of 24 suburbs in Hotspotting’s analysis returning positive rankings. This included 10 rising suburbs and eight recovering.

“Rising markets are headed by Mount Druitt, with median prices of $870,000 and $415,000 for houses and units respectively, and Riverstone, with median prices $1,005,000 and $865,000,” said Graham.

Weekly asking property prices for 2770, including Mount Druitt

“Both of these suburbs make our National Top 100 list of Supercharged Suburbs as well,” he added.

The location is filled with amenities, from Blacktown Train Station to a showground, and Blacktown Hospital. Blacktown is also widely regarded as a cultural melting pot.

Brisbane North, Queensland

According to Ryder, Brisbane has ‘unleashed’ a major recovery. The beating heart of Queensland reversed the steady decline recorded over the past 18 months.

“Now almost three-quarters of suburbs have positive rankings, one of the best results in the nation,” he said.

“The Brisbane North precinct has 41 suburbs on our list, of which 32 have positive trends with their sales activity.”

Terry Ryder, Hotspotting

“Rising markets include Aspley with a median house price of $915,000, Boondall with a median price of $750,000), and Mitchelton with a median price of $1,010,000.”

The neighbouring Moreton Bay region also has 31 suburbs out of 41 with positive classifications, Ryder added.

Casey, Victoria

Located in Melbourne’s outer ring, affordable location rebound was one of the top five trends in Hotspotting’s latest report.

“The outer-ring LGAs illustrate the recovery trend – the City of Casey in the far south-east, which previously had many declining suburbs, now has three rising and nine recovering suburbs among the 15 in our analysis,” said Graham.

“Growth markets include Botanic Ridge with a median house price of $920,000, Doveton with a median price of $590,000, and Endeavour Hills with a median house price of $800,000.”

Weekly asking property prices for 3177, including Doveton

Gladstone, Queensland

Continued strength in the regional market was also part of the top five trends observed, with Gladstone clocking in some encouraging figures.

“Twelve of the 14 Gladstone suburbs on our list have positive classifications: five rising, four consistency, and three recovering,” said Ryder.

‘Rising suburbs include South Gladstone with a median house price of $330,000, Telina with a median price of $400,000 and West Gladstone with a median house price of $325,000.

Weekly asking property prices for 4680, including South Gladstone

Gold Coast, Queensland

The Queensland coast with the Midas touch continues to shine, and has reversed the past year’s doldrums.

“Of the 49 Gold Coast suburbs in our analysis, 44 now have positive rankings, including 28 suburbs categorised as recovering markets,” said Graham.

“There are 10 rising suburbs, including Helensvale with a median house price of $1,025,000.”

Tim Graham, Hotspotting

“Recovering markets include iconic coastal suburbs like Main Beach, Southport, Surfers Paradise, Palm Beach, and Mermaid Beach, while Miami, Mermaid Waters, Currumbin, Burleigh Waters, Bundall, and Ormeau are all rising markets.”

Melbourne City, Victoria

After enduring one of the toughest lockdowns in the world, the laneway and latte capital of Australia has bounced back. Ryder said Melbourne City is the stand-out market in Greater Melbourne, rising on the emerging national trend of buyers opting increasingly for apartments as a lifestyle choice or an affordability measure.

“Of the 10 City of Melbourne suburbs in our analysis, seven are rising markets, one is a consistency market, and one a recovering market,” he said.

“Rising markets include Melbourne CBD with a median unit price of $415,000, East Melbourne with a median unit price of $850,000), West Melbourne with a median unit price of $495,000, and Docklands with a median unit price of $645,000.”

Terry Ryder, Hotspotting

The nearby City of Yarra has four rising markets in Abbotsford, Clifton Hill, Collingwood, and Fitzroy, added Ryder.

Stirling, Western Australia

The City of Stirling has repeatedly ranked as one of the best in class, including top five property hotspots in Perth, previous top 10 best buys, and other previous top 10 municipalities for growth lists.

The LGA is well regarded for its excellent amenity, and is the second largest employment area in Western Australia. Graham added that it has a wide range of options, from affordable suburbs to million-dollar precincts.

“Of the 23 Stirling suburbs in our analysis, 20 have positive rankings, including eight rising and 11 consistency locations,” he said.

“Leading suburbs include Churchlands, with a median house price of $1,590,000, and Karrinyup, with a median house price of $1,135,000.

“Both of these suburbs also made our National Top 100 list of Supercharged Suburbs.”

Weekly asking property prices for 6018, including Churchlands

Sydney City, New South Wales

The City of Sydney was given the accolade of National Growth Star in the latest edition of Hotspotting’s PPI. Ryder said the inner-city suburbs of Sydney are a strong expression of a major trend sweeping Australia, with rising buyer demand for apartments in well-connected locations.

“There are 22 City of Sydney suburbs in our analysis and all but one of them has a positive classification, including 13 ranked as rising markets,” he said.

“Five of these suburbs are included in our National Top 100 list of Supercharged Suburbs – Elizabeth Bay, Forest Lodge, Potts Point, Waterloo, and Zetland.

“City of Sydney suburbs ranked as recovering markets include Alexandria with a median unit price $925,000 and Darlinghurst with a median unit price of $900,000 – along with strongly rising quarterly sales volumes.”

Weekly asking property prices for 2015, including Alexandria

Tea Tree Gully, South Australia

Steadiness remains a hallmark of the Adelaide market, according to Graham, with seven out of 10 suburbs providing positive numbers.

“This survey has found that while there are relatively few suburbs classified as rising markets, there are large numbers of consistency suburbs as well as locations which have transitioned from ‘plateau’ status to ‘recovering’,” he said.

“The 15 Tea Tree Gully suburbs in our analysis include 13 with positive classifications, including seven consistency suburbs.

“Wynn Vale with median prices of $655,000 and $410,000 for houses and units respectively stands out with rising quarterly sales.

“Modbury North, with a median house price of $595,000 and rising quarterly sales over the past three years, is one of the leading consistency markets.”

Weekly asking property prices for 5127, including Wynn Vale

Wollongong and Shoalhaven, New South Wales

Rounding out the top ten is the Gong, just an hour and a half south of Sydney.

While perhaps a little more subdued in regional NSW, recovery is an emerging theme that dominates the national real estate scene, according to Ryder.

“The leading regional city of Wollongong is at the forefront of the state’s recovery: 13 of the 17 suburbs in our analysis have positive classifications, including five rising markets,” he said.

“The suburb of Wollongong with median prices of $1,150,000 and $690,000 respectively is a recovering market.

“The nearby Shoalhaven region is another standout. Of 11 locations in our survey, nine are rising, consistency or recovering markets, led by Sanctuary Point with a median house price of $690,000) and Sussex Inlet with a median house price of $750,000.”

Weekly asking property prices for 2500, including Wollongong



You May Also Like

When will Australian property prices fall? One major challenge continues to prop prices up

Property prices are up by over 35% across the country since Covid, and while not the same story in each city, that’s little solace to prospective buyers pulling their hair out.

A window of opportunity could be open for savvy Australian property investors, but time is ticking

One expert has noticed investors are on the move while there’s less competition and fewer buyers in the marketplace.

Why Aussie property buyers aren’t waiting for rate cuts anymore

A surge in home loans shows buyers aren’t waiting for interest rates to drop before taking the plunge.

How population density is reshaping Australian cities

Explore the relationship between population density and housing trends.

Top Articles

PropertyGuru Asia Property Awards (Australia) returns for its 7th edition, including several brand new award ...

This year's awards include several brand new categories, with entries closing 2 August 2024.

Rentvesting in Australia: A deep dive

Rentvesting offers an alternative path into the property market for priced-out first-time buyers.

Housing crisis survival guide: How to buy your first Australian property

Three property experts give the low down on how to nab a home in this tough housing market.